Well, That's ONE Way To Improve The Economy...

Esteemed Director of the UVA Center for Politics, Larry Sabato, is making some major predictions for the upcoming elections. Now, many of us are pretty sure how things are going to go, but Sabato is using some pretty good numbers to make his predictions sixty days out. Oh, yes, Republicans will take some seats, but wait until you see what Sabato predicts:



Earlier today, Stuart Varney said this prediction will stabilize the stock market and help the economy. Why? Because if companies think the Republicans are going to take over control, they don't have to worry about other big spending bills.

Sabato mentioned his site, the Center for Politics, and his article, "Sixty Days To Go." Here is a snippet from his report:

[snip] We’ve been patient and cautious here at the Crystal Ball as a year’s worth of facts has accumulated. We’ve sifted the polls, cranked up the models, and watched the candidates and campaigns closely. All political observers have “gut feelings” about an election year, but feelings make for good songs and lousy predictions. Forecasting is an imprecise art. People who get too far ahead of the facts or are too insistent about what will happen are usually partisans—openly or in disguise.

The Crystal Ball’s predictions are clinical. We are fond of people in both parties. We cheer for no one.

2010 was always going to be a Republican year, in the midterm tradition. It has simply been a question of degree. Several scenarios were possible, depending in large measure on whether, or how quickly, the deeply troubled American economy recovered from the Great Recession. Had Democratic hopes on economic revitalization materialized, it is easy to see how the party could have used its superior financial resources, combined with the tendency of Republicans in some districts and states to nominate ideological fringe candidates, to keep losses to the low 30s in the House and a handful in the Senate. [snip]

I encourage you to read the rest here.

A stable economy - well, that is certainly something we have not seen of late. I guess time will tell, right?


If I may take a moment of personal privilege, two things: 1. Earl is not coming near us, but Gaston might; and 2. as I mentioned in a comment recently, I will be having a total knee replacement (right knee) on September 9th. Some of you may recall I had a partial replacement 1 3/4 years ago on my left knee (and that one will be replaced in February - the partial didn't help). My orthopedist informed me that as hard as my rehab was for the partial, it is MUCH harder for the total. That is all to say, I will be out of commission for a good bit. I am guessing at least a month. Bad timing for blogging the upcoming political season, but I cannot wait any more. Thanks for the support, and the understanding.

And Gaston? Well, my partner might be making a trip back down here to help our friend who is house/pet-sitting batten down the hatches. Like with the economy, we will wait and see.

In my absence beginning 9/9, I recommend No Quarter, The Hill, Sara In Italy, and Logistics Monster.